SARS-CoV-2 Spread Dynamics in Italy: The Calabria Experience

Introduction: The first case of infection by SARS-CoV-2 (i.e., COVID-19) has been officially recorded by the Italian National Health Service on February 21^st, 2020. Lombardy was the first Italian region to be affected by the pandemic. Subsequently, the entire Northern part of Italy recorded a high number of cases, while the South was hit following the migratory waves. On March 8^th, the Italian Government has issued a decree that imposed a total lockdown, defining it as a state of isolation and restricting access in Lombardy and the other 14 provinces of Northern Italy. Methods: We analyzed the virus trend in the period between February 24^th and September 8^th, 2020, focusing on Calabria, with regards to the following items: new positives, change of total positives, and total cases. Furthermore, we included other information, such as the incubation period, symptom resolution period, quarantine period. Results: On March 27^th, the epidemic curve spiked with 101 new positive cases validating the hypothesis that this abnormal event was related to the displacement of non-residents people, living in the Northern part of Italy, to the home regions in the South. The epidemic curve showed a decreasing trend in the period after lockdown, proving the effectiveness of this measure. From the end of the lockdown May 04^th to September 8^th, the registered trend was -94.51%. A negative growth rate indicates that the number of new positive cases is lower than the number of healed patients. Conclusion: This study describes the effectiveness of the Italian Government policy, particularly the role of lockdown, for the containment of SARS-CoV-2 contagion in Calabria, a region with a low SARS-CoV-2 infection rate within the registered period.