Analysis of Renewable Generation Uncertainty for Planning and Operation

The continuous demand in energy consumption and relative depletion of fossil fuel reserves has increased the use of renewable energy resources. However, these resources are characterized by their intermittent nature, and hence the uncertainty of these resources has gained importance in analysis and calculation. Traditionally, uncertainty has been dealt with using probabilistic and possibilistic methods, but the probability density function (PDF) method is used when historical data is not properly available. Also, a hybrid of these methods is often used. This chapter provides a brief introduction of various probabilistic and possibilistic methods used for uncertainty analysis in solar and wind energy generation systems. A comparison of various methods used for this purpose has been given in the chapter, which may help choose the best method for a given condition.